How to restore international trade after the pandemic ends – CGTN

Editor’s note: Djoomart Otorbaev is the former prime minister of the Kyrgyz Republic, a distinguished professor of the Belt and Road School of Beijing Normal University, and a member of Nizami Ganjavi International Center. The article reflects the author’s views, and not necessarily those of CGTN.

It is clear to everyone that the global crisis of the world economy caused by the pandemic will have unprecedented economic consequences. Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva was quite emotional last week: “Never in the history of the IMF have we witnessed the world economy coming to a standstill,” she said. Just three months ago, the IMF predicted global growth at 3.3 percent this year. Now it has replaced it with a contraction of 3 percent.

The depth and duration of the economic downturn will depend on how long governments maintain their lockdowns. Many expect the constraints to last into the summer. 

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) estimates that for each month of containment, there will be a loss of 2 percentage points in annual GDP growth. The IMF has modeled a few scenarios. In the worst case the global economy would shrink