“With the current system likely to be in place until March, it is unlikely that GDP will recover to October’s level until Q2. We expect it to fall by about 5.5 per cent month-to-month in November, before recovering by only 4.5 per cent in December. Brexit-related disruptions will prevent GDP from rising meaningfully further in the initial months of 2021.”
In its latest review of investment flows, Bank of America said investors are “gobbling up stocks”.
A three-week record of $US89 billion has poured into global equities, according to the bank’s calculations, in particular into value stocks and small caps.
From November 19 through November 24, Bank of America said $US17.5 billion flowed into equities, $US6.4 billion into bonds, $US2.2 billion out of gold, and $US2.9 billion out of cash.
Bank of America has a 2021 target of 3800 points for the S&P 500, though earlier this week it said “near-term risk is likely skewed to the downside”; the index closed at 3630 on Wednesday in New York.
Still, Bank of America puts itself at the bearish end. “Wall Street’s consensus equity allocation has been a reliable contrarian indicator over time. At 57 per cent, Wall St is neutral on US stocks, but remains below the typical benchmark allocation of 60 per cent.
“Current levels imply price returns of 10 per cent over the next 12 months, putting the S&P 500 at 3897 (based on 11/20/20’s close). Note that from 2009 to now, the forecast 12-month return output of this